anyone imagining that ipv6 will get an observable percentage
of total endpoint penetration any time soon only needs to look
at the onslaught of microcontrollers starting to ship with
IPv4 technology integral to them.
the microcontroller universe outnumbers everything else
by a huge margin, so it doesn't take a very large penetration
of that space to make incredible numbers, and at the rate
that's growing, it will be a substantial penetration.
these machines will have v4 but it will be a very long time
before they have v6. why? because they are very resource
constrained, nobody will spend money near-term for dual-stack,
and a v4 product you can ship today.
also note that a number of chip makers are doing "hardware"
implementations of ipv4 stacks, up to and through transport
level crypto. i'm not suggesting i think this is unilaterally a great
idea (quite the contrary), but they are being built and getting
designed into things. some of these are "TCP UARTS", designed
to let really simple systems suddenly become web and internet
enabled, and others are designed to be high-performance devices
to offload some server processing. again, they are getting
designed into things and once there, essentially immutable.
ipv6 may eventually be visible, but i predict most people
currently reading this will have grandchildren using ipv4
technology, whether they want to or not.
the first window for real volume penetration has been lost.
whether there will be another window is yet to be seen.
this is neither an attack on or defence of anything - it's
just my reading of the forces at work.
Mike O'Dell, President
Compass Rose Labs
3143 Cobb Hill Lane
Oakton VA 22124