The size and timing of the address resource problem depends on your
viewpoint, of course. Your existing address resources, your growth rate,
your subscriber base, the extent to which more NATs remove your problem
all vary.
But I would argue this does not really matter so much. I think we have
already run out of the addresses, with consequent implications to
applications, end-to-end nature of the Internet, and business planning.
Just as an example, one mobile operator who participates in the IETF
IPv6 and NAT work has half a billion subscribers. Think their planning
revolves around asking the RIRs for an address to each customer, as they
are rapidly transitioning from circuit switched voice to voip and
browser/email/google/facebook-on-everyone's-device model? Arguing about
exact dates or the level of catastrophe seems like rearranging the deck
chairs on Titanic. Things will be bad. We should focus on changing the
direction and making things better.
In any case, I think we are missing the point if we try to argue about
the accuracy of mainstream media news articles. Of course they are
simplified and twisted to a ridiculous level. Just check any other
article where you knew what really was going on.
But I think the important point is that a change is needed. For that to
happen, we need to have both an alternative and global awareness of the
problem. We will need also mainstream news articles in the latter.
Jari
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