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Re: [ietf-dkim] Interesting recent statistics

2011-02-08 18:33:43
From: Rolf E. Sonneveld 
[mailto:R(_dot_)E(_dot_)Sonneveld(_at_)sonnection(_dot_)nl] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 08, 2011 2:53 PM
To: Murray S. Kucherawy
Cc: ietf-dkim(_at_)mipassoc(_dot_)org WG
Subject: Re: [ietf-dkim] Interesting recent statistics

[...]

1) There's a slow but steady increase in signed message rates:
http://www.opendkim.org/stats/report.html#signing_trend (ignore the first 
row, that month was skewed;
also the current month is, of course, incomplete)

Good news! Although... we don't know whether the increase is due to spammers 
that adopt DKIM or legit
senders adopting DKIM.

We have some hints in the data, since I have some correlation between 
DKIM-specific message data and SpamAssassin results.  I just need to build the 
right SQL query.  I'll post again when I have that.

3) Overall pass rates are pretty high, even when they transit MLMs:
http://www.opendkim.org/stats/report.html#passfail

What I don't understand here, what's what. I see four figures:

Signatures: 1362786 Ignored: 482 Pass: 1275158 Failed (body): 16027

But this row does not provide the correct pass/fail rate in total, does it? I 
thought the pass rate was
(1,362,786 - 16,020) / (1,362,786), or if we subtract the ignored: (1,362,786 
- 482 - 16,020) / (1,362,786).
This, however, is not correct: the number of failed is not the total number 
of failed, only the body failed
(as is indicated). Is it possible to add a fifth figure: failed (header), to 
this row in order to have a
complete list of figures?

Pass/fail is an indication of whether or not the signature verified.  A 
signature fails to verify if there was a header hash mismatch or a body hash 
mismatch.  Thus:

        failed(header) = total - ignored - pass - failed(body)


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