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Re: [Asrg] 2. Analysis (specifically, trap addresses)

2003-10-02 07:10:34
On Wed, 1 Oct 2003 20:03:18 -0400, Kee Hinckley wrote:

At 12:21 PM -0500 10/1/03, Terry Sullivan wrote:
Data from multiple independent sources (including Liam Meany, Scott
Nelson, and myself) indicate that "otherwise identical" trap
addresses receive *vastly* different amounts of spam traffic.

[snip]

It's frequently been said that there are really only about 200 major 
spammers.  And certainly there are fewer types of spamming software 
than that, and fewer sources of target addresses.
[snip]
...And it's definitely not a random population.


As you suggest, there are lots of possible/plausible explanations 
that may actually account for the "unexplained" variance in _ad lib_ 
spam volume.  And I absolutely agree with your core point, that said 
variance is so obscenely large that it cannot possibly be truly 
"random" in nature.  Clearly, one or more systematic forces are at 
play; but those systematic forces lie wholly outside experimental 
control.

Still, it remains statistically "bad" variance, precisely because it 
isn't subject to experimental control.  By implication, any "live" 
experiment simply *must* be able to factor it out at analysis time.  
Otherwise, there's no point in running the experiment.

(All of which underscores the need for a trap-address effort.)

- Terry



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