--On Wednesday, June 20, 2001 09:35 +0200
joaquin(_dot_)riverarodriguez(_at_)telefonica-data(_dot_)com wrote:
Has anybody seen a VCR other than VHS on the last 10 years?
A slightly optimistic note, although I agree with you and suggest
that Stef's "in due course" can hide a long and painful period...
Seen any of the recent "video to hard disk" systems? Looked at
the sales curves? Are you sure that, given the computer industry
history of gradually replacing the use of tape in various
categories of use with random-access storage, "VCR" is the right
category to look at, rather than "television recording devices"
generally?
This is still an incomplete experiment, obviously. My personal
guess is that we won't start to know the answer until we see
integrated, plausibly consumer-priced, "set top box" units that
contain both the hard disks and something that plays, e.g.,
rented movies in DVD form. But it will be interesting.
A possibly more interesting question is whether, had System 2000
been the winner, it would have survived any better once
random-access equipment became available and cheap than VHS seems
likely to do. I.e., if the transition I'm guessing at occurs,
how much of it will be driven by the basic advantages of (and
increased functionality possible with) random access devices and
how much by the deficiences of VHS.
I tent to believe that markets choose the one to win on every
field, and unfortunately most times the chosen one is not that
who holds the best technology.
Yes, but these choices are often very complex and for
unpredictable reasons. And Stef's "in due course" allows a very
long time for poor technology choices in the marketplace to work
themselves out.
john