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Re: IPv4 consumption statistics and extrapolations

2004-11-07 07:38:26
    > From: Geoff Huston <gih(_at_)apnic(_dot_)net>

    > I would like to correct a few numbers in Tony's comments based on my
    > work in this area that Tony has referred to.
    > ...
    > At this rate the central pool will exhaust in 2018, some 14 years hence.

The incredibly rich irony, for those with long memories, is that *IPv6 only
exists because of a previous round of FUD about IPv4 address exhaustion* -
one spread by the proponents of yet another protocol that was going to
"replace" IPv4 - i.e. CLNP.

"It's deja vu all over again".

Of course, there's a wondeful recursive flavour to this go-round (as noted
above) that was missing from the last one.

    > (Of course you should consult your favourite oracle, mystic, soothsayer
    > or whatever for your own preferred version of the future.)

At one point, Frank Solensky had a very interesting graph - which was of the
forward motion of the "IPv4 addresses will run out" date. (I.e. the X axis
was "date prediction was made", and the Y axis was "predicted date of
exhaustion"). It would be very interesting to see what it would look like
today, if updated.

        Noel

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