Michel Py wrote:
I think you missed the point. As of today, IPv6 is in the same situation
ISDN has always been:
I Still Don't Need.
^ ^ ^ ^
Comparisons to past successes or failures are fun, but
not always good indications of future. There are several
reasons behind why something takes or does not take off.
These include customer needs, timing (can the SDO complete
the specs before people deploy?), conformance to a
dominating technology (why would I buy Beta if all movies
are on Vhs?), problems working in all situations (does my
VoIP call go through a NAT?), business case for all the parties
that need to do something (can I charge you more if we
start offering <x>?), ease of use (zero configuration for
most of the network stuff is a requirement for success
as far as I can see), immediate benefits (or do you have
to wait before everyone else on the planet has it too before
you can use it at all?) and so on.
The trouble with looking at past failures is that they
make you feel like nothing can ever change. Yet we do have
examples of spectacular successes, even in cases where there
has been obstacles in the way, significant complexity or
existing, competing technology that provides some of the
same functionality. Say, switch from analog to digital
cellular technology. Many such successes occur in situations
where the market is growing rapidly, which makes it easier
to change technology. And I believe the Internet is growing
rapidly. For instance, there are billions of people in Asia,
hopefully most of whom will probably have Internet access
in the next ten years. Or the cell phone users, looks like
the trend is that everyone will also have IP (and IPv6!);
that's over a billion users more than we have now in the
Internet.
Also, the comparisons may not be exact matches: I wonder
what would have happened to ISDN if the numbering system
in the analog system had run out of numbers, and everyone
who got their phone after 1960, including all the Chinese
subscribers, would only be able to make, not receive
calls?
--Jari
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