And for further clarification... I put this response together based on the
data I saw from Geoff a couple of months ago, and couldn't check the URL in
the air. Everyone should check the site because he has included further
evaluation of the data. I apologize for any perception or inference that
Geoff may not have been presenting valid data. The data he has been
presenting is valid for what it measures, our differences of opinion have
been over what and where to measure.
That said, I stand by the point that if the recent depletion rate of 9 /8s
in 6 months holds, there are only 58 months left. That event may have been
an anomaly, or it may be the precursor to an even more accelerated run rate.
We won't know for several years which it was.
Tony
-----Original Message-----
From: ietf-bounces(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org
[mailto:ietf-bounces(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org] On Behalf Of
Tony Hain
Sent: Sunday, November 07, 2004 12:37 PM
To: 'Geoff Huston'; 'Harald Tveit Alvestrand'
Cc: v6ops(_at_)ops(_dot_)ietf(_dot_)org; ietf(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org; 'Pekka
Savola'
Subject: RE: IPv4 consumption statistics and extrapolations
Geoff Huston wrote:
I would like to correct a few numbers in Tony's comments based on my
work
in this area that Tony has referred to.
The least squares best fit of advertised address space in the IPv4
domain
over the past 5 years is a consumption rate of 4 /8s per year, slightly
less than half of Tony's number
To continue the refinement; as you frequently point out as well, there is
a
lag between request/assignment from the RIR and advertisement. Given that,
the advertisement growth you are quoting does not account for the recent
slope change in the IANA pool depletion I am referencing, and won't even
start to do so for another 6-12 months.
Even over the past 10 months the least squares best fit of data is a
consumption rate of 5.5/8's per year
Let's be clear, consumption rate from the pool is not the same as
advertisement rate you are basing your measurements on. The size of the
advertised pool has absolutely no bearing on the size of the remaining
stock
held by IANA or the RIR's. The slopes may be on a time delayed track, but
there is always the opportunity for addresses to be pulled from the pool
yet
never advertised. As my I-D on 1918bis points out there are organizations
that have outgrown the available private space, so there only current
option
is to acquire public space they never intend to route.
At this rate the central pool will exhaust in 2018, some 14 years hence.
No, by your measure this is the date the advertised pool will be receiving
all possible prefixes. As we have discussed before, there are two problems
with these numbers, the first is that it assumes all currently reserved /8
prefixes can and will be used (by my count there were really only 78
useful
ones left in August), and second that it assumes that someone will find
and
reclaim the ~13% of the space currently 'lost in the system' (the
difference
between the IANA reserved and RIR-assigned).
i.e. some 168 months hence. Allowing for an accelerating consumption
rate
at an exponential rate brings this forward to 10 years, or 120 months.
(details of the analysis are at http://bgp.potaroo.net/ipv4/)
(Of course you should consult your favourite oracle, mystic, soothsayer
or
whatever for your own preferred version of the future.)
We can probably all agree that the 'last IPv4 address' will never be
acquired. Policies will become stricter until the price is so high that
nobody can afford it; or nobody will care once the replacement is
deployed.
Tony
regards,
Geoff
At 07:38 AM 6/11/2004, Tony Hain wrote:
Harald,
I would like to congratulate you on your successes, and suggest you
have
the
opportunity to be the last chair to preside over active work related to
version 4 of the IP protocol suite. With the publication of the
tunneling
drafts that v6ops has been sitting on, there is no further need to
discuss
32 bit address objects. At the same time, there is really no further
justification for any other IETF working group to be discussing 32 bit
addresses in current work. With all due respect to Geoff's efforts to
document the address growth rate in the routing system, even he
acknowledges
that measure lags the allocation timeframe and assumes the RIRs will
recover
all space currently considered lost. Given that IANA allocated 9 /8's
over a
6 month period this year, coupled with the fact that only 78 /8's
remain
in
the useful part of the pool (ie: 52 month burn out), it should be clear
to
everyone that products that rely on current standards activities will
appear
in the market place after the central pool of 32 bit values has run
dry.
As
such I would recommend your legacy include an active review of all
working
group discussions next week for items related to IPv4, followed by
closure
of all 32 bit address related work items before your departure in
March.
Tony
-----Original Message-----
From: ietf-bounces(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org
[mailto:ietf-bounces(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org] On Behalf
Of
Harald Tveit Alvestrand
Sent: Friday, November 05, 2004 1:20 AM
To: ietf(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org
Subject: Stepping down as IETF chair in March
Thomas' note reminded me that there are probably some people who
haven't
heard this yet....
I'm stepping down as IETF chair in March, and I am not a candidate
for
reappointment.
It's been a great four years, containing lots of learning
experience,
lots
of hard work and lots of joy - but after four years as IETF chair,
and
ten
years total on the IESG/IAB, March seems an appropriate time for me
to
leave this stage of my life behind.
The IETF is a great organization. I will enjoy watching it continue
to
grow
and prosper under new leadership.
Thank you!
Harald
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