On 7-nov-04, at 22:18, Tony Hain wrote:
That said, I stand by the point that if the recent depletion rate of 9
/8s
in 6 months holds, there are only 58 months left. That event may have
been
an anomaly, or it may be the precursor to an even more accelerated run
rate.
We won't know for several years which it was.
Right. It's almost impossible to come up with good projections because
there are many factors that are easily overlooked or too hard to
quantify. A simple one is that /8s are reclaimed from time to time,
which increases the number of available addresses and lowers the
apparent burn rate. A much more complex issue is the practice of some
ISPs to use old /8s they got way back when to give out addresses to
their customers (4.0.0.0/8 is a good example). Once those private
stashes are gone we'll see a higher burn rate. I think the fact that
the whole broadband revolution doesn't show up in Geoff's statistics is
a good indication that those statistics are incomplete.
What I'm afraid of is that we may end up in a situation where many
people have all the addresses they need and don't see any reason to
adopt IPv6, while others who are late to the table can't get sufficient
IPv4 address space and will have to adopt IPv6 out of necessity,
resulting in a fragmented internet where large groups can only
communicate with each other using hideous NAT hacks.
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Would you guys please stop quoting previous messages verbatim? At this
rate the SMTP protocol will break before the end of this debate.
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