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Re: myth of the great transition (was US Defense Department formally adopts IPv6)

2003-06-17 06:46:33
Tim writes:

But a year ago we didn't have Abilene, GEANT
or a large number of European NRENs offering
a native IPv6 service.

A year ago, my parents weren't using IPv6, whereas today ... they still
aren't using it.  When their connection is IPv6, I'll know that it has
arrived.

The more pervasive a technology becomes, the more slowly its widespread
implementation changes, and the greater the gap between the leading edge in
that technology and the actual state of implementation in the field.

Computerland isn't the way it used to be.  A large chunk of the world uses
computers now.  Nothing happens quickly anymore.  It's getting further and
further away from the halcyon days of what was then called EDP, when things
could change overnight, and closer and closer to the worlds of automobiles
and telephones, ubiquitous technologues that change only with imperceptibly
glacial slowness.

It's entirely possible that IPv6 may _still_ be planned for "real soon now"
ten or fifteen years from today.

On the coal face, we can see real progress.

Wait until the coal is producing power for your microwave before you
celebrate.

If you want to keep running IPv4, with or without NAT,
feel free.

That's exactly what people will do, until and unless they encounter a
problem with IPv4 that can only be solved by IPv6.