On Sun, Aug 26, 2007 at 12:20:01PM +0100, Michael Dillon wrote:
In two or three years, IPv4 network growth will be severely limited. Any
business whose revenue growth is linked to IP network growth, must use
IPv6 for this beyond two to three years from now. IN order to
successfully use IPv6 for the mission critical network growth that is
the engine of business revenue, they need to have at least a year of
trials and lab testing in advance. That means there is not much more
than a year before such businesses will have missed the boat. Some may
argue that Return three years from now on Investment made today is not
short term, and that is true. However, if the investment is not made
today, the platform for short term ROI will not exist in three years
time.
That does make a strong business case and some companies are busy
working behind the scenes to prepare for the disruption caused by IPv4
runout. For some, the disruptive event will be fatal and for others it
will be very profitable. This message will soon reach the investment
community so you will soon see investment analysts asking very tough
IPv6 deployment questions, and rating stocks appropriately. That is
definitely a short term ROI scenario for IPv6.
Hmmm ... I haven't heard much about IPv6 deployment yet from an
investment standpoint from the usual business news sources, even the
tech business news sources. I'll grant that may change soon.
However, as has been noted, there are businesses, organizations,
etc. that have migrated to, or adopted, IPv6. I hear that IPv6 has
gained a foothold in Asia, for example. Perhaps the answer to all of
these questions regarding "pain points" is to collect and document
case studies on who made the migration or adoption, what problems were
encountered, etc.
Think back to the days when the OSI protocols were expected to be the
next big thing, replacing IPX, DECNET, Appletalk and NetBIOS. IP was for
universities and labs. In telecoms, ISDN and ATM were the wave of the
future. This is the way things were in 1993. Two years later, in 1995 we
were experiencing exponential growth of the TCP/IP Internet. I believe
that it was something like 1500% growth in that year and dozens of new
books about the Internet came on the market joining the 3 books that
were on the market in 1994.
It is almost certain that IPv4 runout will drive a similar upsurge in
IPv6, although not quite the same magnitude.
Hasn't there been exponential growth of the TCP/IP Internet all
along? Also, with regards to the time period in question, wasn't most
of the growth fueled by (1) interest in the WWW, and (2) interest of
some of the online services at the time (AOL, CompuServe, etc.) to
provide access to the Internet, and vice versa? I wasn't aware that
OSI was part of the discussion at this point. A few years earlier,
there were "mandates" for US government networks to use OSI protocols
(GOSIP), but nothing ever came of that.
--gregbo
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