This is an important set of results, we are almost at the point where we
might start to predict the transition time.
Assuming that the transition is following the standard S curve
transition the key point is the point at which the rate of adoption
stops rising. At the moment we are at 0.29% so at this rate it would
take 27 years to get SPF adopted if the rate of adoption does not
continue to improve.
We are clearly still at the early part of the S-curve where the second
derrivative is still accelerating.
To declare that we are at critical mass we have to get to a point where
we have over 5% installed base AND the rate of adoption is 2% a month or
better. It looks to me like it will take about 12 months to achieve that
at this rate and even then we are looking at 5 years to get full
adoption.
On the other hand there is a very large number of domains that are not
actually used for anything, they are simply parked. This may well be
giving an artificially low number since it is the number of active email
sending domains that is critical.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com
[mailto:owner-spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com] On Behalf Of wayne
Sent: Friday, July 08, 2005 3:29 PM
To: spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com
Subject: [spf-discuss] Andy Newton reports: SPF Adoption on the Rise
Andy Newton published some brief results of his latest domain survey:
http://hxr.us/blojsom/blog/grumpops/computers/anti-spam/?perma
link=SPF_Adoption_on_the_Rise.txt
In part, he says:
My preliminary numbers for a scan completed over the July 4 weekend
shows that SPF adoption is now up to 3.52%. Not only is the overall
percentage up, but the rate of adoption is up as well, from 0.09%
per month to a whopping 0.27% per month.
-wayne
-------
Sender Policy Framework: http://spf.pobox.com/
Archives at http://archives.listbox.com/spf-discuss/current/
To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your
subscription,
please go to
http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com