Also we need to see the impact on a social network (per system) basis too.
For example, we can have 10 billion SPF records, but if no one is processing
them, it means nothing.
So it is important to get rates based on a per SPF receiver basis to measure
and compare the growth in usage per system and also how it reflects their
own social network.
For example,
For 2004:
Jan: 0.0% of my checking sessions had SPF records
Feb: 0.7%
Mar: 1.3%
Apr: 2.6%
May: 4.1%
Jun: 3.7%
Jul: 4.0%
Aug: 3.9%
Sep 3.8%
Oct: 5.1%
Nov: 7.0%
Dec: 9.1%
For 2005:
Jan: 7.3%
Feb: 6.4%
Mar: 5.4%
Apr: 4.3%
May: 5.6%
Jun: 6.1%
Jul: 4.6%
Do definitely the growth is there on a per system basis. I would say that
each SPF receiver system will have a similar growth pattern for thier own
network.
This could be extrapolated to the network as a whole, but the real important
is how many systems are really checking for SPF records and what they are
seeing for incoming networks.
Also, I wonder if the above pattern is steady state for my social network of
relationships and domains. If it continues to grow then it might also
reflect the adoption rate of "spammer."
For example, it might sure how my vendors and customers are adapting SPF as
well since our product offers supports. Most of my legit mail is business or
support oriented.
--
Hector Santos, Santronics Software, Inc.
http://www.santronics.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "johnp" <johnp(_at_)idimo(_dot_)com>
Newsgroups: spf.-.sender.policy.framework.discussion
To: <spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com>
Sent: Friday, July 08, 2005 3:51 PM
Subject: Re: [spf-discuss] Andy Newton reports: SPF Adoption on the Rise
Hallam-Baker, Phillip wrote:
This is an important set of results, we are almost at the point where we
might start to predict the transition time.
Assuming that the transition is following the standard S curve
transition the key point is the point at which the rate of adoption
stops rising. At the moment we are at 0.29% so at this rate it would
take 27 years to get SPF adopted if the rate of adoption does not
continue to improve.
We are clearly still at the early part of the S-curve where the second
derrivative is still accelerating.
To declare that we are at critical mass we have to get to a point where
we have over 5% installed base AND the rate of adoption is 2% a month or
better. It looks to me like it will take about 12 months to achieve that
at this rate and even then we are looking at 5 years to get full
adoption.
On the other hand there is a very large number of domains that are not
actually used for anything, they are simply parked. This may well be
giving an artificially low number since it is the number of active email
sending domains that is critical.
We need an adoption rate measured against the number of domains which have
MX records.
Anything else is likely to be erroneous and misleading. Having said
that - a measure
against domains which have an A record would be good too....
Slainte.
JohnP
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