At 06:08 PM 4/16/2003 +0100, Jon Kyme wrote:
I don't see that there's what the charter calls "a realistic chance of
wide-scale deployment" for what you propose.
What evaluation of the chances have you done?
I don't have to. You're proposing it. You should do the sums.
But here goes...
Let's see, the ORDB.org database lists 183548 open relays
as of 16 April 2003. Based on this we'll need approaching 20 million
undetected honeypots to reduce spam received by one of my users to the
level that content-filters (or blists) can achieve now.
Or, we assume that maybe 1% of mail servers are open relays
(http://www.imc.org/ube-relay.html) we can see that we'll need
about about the same number of honeypots as there are mail servers
Now assuming that there are maybe 200 honeypots currently deployed
we need 5 orders of magnitude increase. Assuming that the honeypot
numbers grow at about the same rate that the number of internet hosts in
total have grown (an order of mag in 5 years
http://www.isc.org/ds/WWW-200301/index.html ) and that the absolute number
of open relays remains constant, we can see that we need something like 25
years to deploy the required honeypots.
Of course this may be speeded up somewhat if, after the first 5-10 years,
you find the absolute number of open relays has fallen due to your
reporting efforts.
problem won't shrink to make up for your short-sightedness.
I'm not sure how the ability to perform simple arithmetic makes me
short-sighted.
With the best will in the world (and making some very kind assumptions)
your plan seems to take decades to work. That's too slow. The spammers can
adapt quickly enough. The good guys won't wait that long for a return on
their investment.
My subjective evaluation of the chances of deploying a system that takes
years (decades) to reduce my users spam to a level that I can achieve in a
matter of days or hours with other systems is about zero.
It's a weak idea, not made stronger by simply repeating it.
However, as a spam collection tool...
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