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Re: Why not a ".IETF" TLD? (was: Re: Financial state of the IETF...)

2003-03-16 15:57:55

.IETF already exists - try not to duplicate namespace.

Joe Baptista - only at www.baptista.god

   PoserTutor - How to use Poser http://posertutor.nomad/
       registration facilities in the inclusive namespace

On Sun, 16 Mar 2003, Peter Deutsch wrote:

g'day Randy,

Randy Bush wrote:

At one point some of us tried to use the .org redelegation to help fund
the IETF. [1] We didn't win but the ISOC's bid did win. Did the ISOC make
the same commitment, could they divert some funding from .org domain
registrations to support the IETF?

how would they justify this?  i.e. s/org/net/ or s/org/uk/ and how
does it work out?

I'm not sure I understand the question, but maybe you're just waxing
rhetorical?

If the question is should PIR help support the IETF, it would seem to
fall within their mission, if they chose to do so. After all, their home
page states:

     "PIR looks forward to serving the .ORG community by
      providing superior technology; new services designed
      for noncommercial registrants; and responsive,
      responsible stewardship."

Note the line about "providing superior technology", which could be
interpreted as supporting improvements to DNS technologies, at the
least. Wouldn't be much of a stretch to say it could also cover
supporting developments at the transport layer. Given the relationship
between ISOC and the IETF you could make a similar argument about this
being within *their* mandate, as well.

Still, AFAIK PIR haven't actually made any specific commitments to
helping out the IETF, so it wouldn't be appropriate to try to strong-arm
them into offering to do so now, but I see no reason why we shouldn't
push for revenues from a specific TLD to support the overall mission of
the IETF in the future. Folks who support the IETF's goals and mission
could use their patronage of the "IETF TLD" to show their support and
provide specific finiancial aid. It would act as sort of an "affinity
TLD service", just like those affinity credit cards, where a portion of
the money spent goes as a subsidy to your favorite worthy cause.

In fact, I'm surprised that this isn't being done already, since it
seems such an obvious step. It would certainly be appropriate to set up
an "IETF domain" to pay for the secretariat, mailing list hosting, a
full-blown set of archives, etc. Meeting fees could then be used to fund
only the incremental cost of a participant's physical presence (such as,
of course, the cookies...)



Let's look at the numbers for a minute. The IETF's non-meeting costs are
somewhere on the order of $1.3 million, and the meetings are something
on the order of $1.2 million (from slide 3 of Harald's presentation).
This means that the meeting's direct costs are only about $250 per
attendee per year (assuming three meetings per year and about 1.6k
attendees per meeting).

So, if the new TLD fees could raise something like $1.3 million clear
(after the expenses of actually providing the TLD servers, which of
course are ripe for donations, subsidies, etc) then you would only need
to charge something like $250 per person per year for the actual
meetings, which is obviously less than is charged now.

So let's set the target at $2 million to cover the cost of a small TLD
service, plus a little extra to build up the rainy day fund.

How realistic is it to consider raising $2 million per year in domain
registrations?

Here's where I need to wave my hands a little and you need to use your
imagination, but if you charge, say, $50 per reg, this is 40,000
entries. Make it something like $200/year each and you need only 10,000
to hit your target. Are there 20,000 people out there who'd pay $100 per
year to have a cool "hacker(_at_)foobar(_dot_)ietf" email address? I suspect 
so.

And of course, you can reduce this number further if you still allow
some cross-subsidy from the meeting fees, you can still push for
corporate donations (say for servers or hosting services to reduce the
service costs), etc. Here's where a full time DNS business manager could
probably pay for him or herself in no time at all by drumming up
equipment donations and hosting subsidies.

In any event, there are today something like 2,000 people who already
pay something like $500 per visit to the IETF over the course of a year
for their meeting fees. Assuming you've reduced the meeting fees, or
simply rolled the TLD sub into the existing fee, you'd find this part of
the equation could remain revenue neutral with few complaints. Thus, the
question boils down to whether you could raise any *additional* revenues
from subs coming in from folks not physically present, companies,
Intellectual Property lawyers and so on. At first glance this certainly
seems feasible to me...

And if you do better than cover the current revenue shortfall, you would
actually be lowering the cost of IETF participation for those who
physically show up to meetings. As Martha Stewart would say "And This is
Good...(tm)"


I for one maintain a few TLDs and wouldn't mind at all taking out at
least one more to support the IETF, assuming it's a "reasonable" fee
(anything under $100 per year would probably be lost in the noise). It
would be a legitimate business expense for me, and I'd know the money is
going to support something I approve of. You'd need to do some real
market research to determine if this is all viable or if I'm really as
special as my mom always thought, but my guess is you could find a whole
passle of intellectual property types who'd sign up for their favorite
strings on principle (after fighting you tooth and nail through the
"twisty little passages of ICANN, all the same" until the TLD went
live).

My guess is that there's an inbuilt free rent in *any* TLD (why do you
think they're so popular??) but even if there isn't, all you're really
trying to do is generate supplemental revenues equal to the delta
between current revenues and expenses, so this looks like a *very*
promising line to take.

The only other alternative for an organization who sees its membership
falling is to cut costs or increase fees. The former reduces performance
and the later could lead to a death spiral as rising costs chase more
and more people away. Finding an alternative revenue stream seems the
only *healthy* long term alternative.


Oh wait - there is a hitch. Of course, if we try to do this, the IETF
would then be finally forced to visit the ICANN Alternate Reality Plane
that the rest of the world has struggled with for so long. Whether this
is considered a "good thing" or a "bad thing" is left as an exercise for
the reader but if any organization has a claim to a TLD, it would seem
to be the group that defines and maintains the very technologies and
procedures used to make the service work. This approach requires no
revenue-sharing agreements with the other TLD operators, no changes in
technologies or procedures and shouldn't "destabilize the root" since
it's a single additional TLD with minimal impact on traffic patterns.
Putting aside any moral claims, the IETF should be able to quickly reach
consensus upon an RFC stating that this specific TLD wouldn't hurt the
current DNS... ;-)

Okay, that's more than my 2 cents on this subject. Do with it as you
will...


And finally, a couple of specific comments on the posted financials
before I close.

Any business plan predicated upon the assumption that attendance will
maintain or return to the higher levels of previous years seems fatally
flawed, to say the least. The hi tech train wreck has now lasted three
years and shows no signs of being cleared from the tracks any time soon,
so we shouldn't allow ourselves too much "irrational optimism" on this
front. A more likely scenario is falling attendance for at least another
year, if not more, and this should be in the budget.

Also, to respond to Steve Casner's comment about comparisons with past
costs, given the inertia in starting and perpetrating working groups I
would guess that a 20 percent reduction in attendees doesn't
automatically translate to a 20 percent reduction in demand for the
number of meeting rooms, just more space available in each room, so
there seems to have been a ratchet effect here on the cost base. And if
the IETF's cost base is now permanently higher than it was a few years
ago, you will either need to take steps to fix the revenue side, or
you'll need to fix the demand side.

Thus, it looks like one of the steps needed in these harder times is a
cost-cutting exercise to reduce the number or working groups, and thus
the number of rooms needed. The demands upon space likely wont drop back
down again on their own, so some hard calls might be needed to balance
the books here.


In summary, I would suggest that if decisions are made based upon
built-in assumptions such as "attendance is going back up" or "falling
attendance automatically lowers costs", we'll all be revisiting this
whole debate again a year from now, but with the numbers in worse shape
than they are today...



                 - peterd (who remembers this specific analysis on the
                            cost of cookies cycling round before...)

--
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    Peter Deutsch                       pdeutsch(_at_)gydig(_dot_)com
                      Gydig Software


     As Oprah Winfrey likes to say, "There's only two ways
        to lose weight - eat less, or exercise more..."

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