From: Iljitsch van Beijnum [mailto:iljitsch(_at_)muada(_dot_)com]
On 3-aug-2007, at 0:46, Hallam-Baker, Phillip wrote:
I expect the market in IPv4 addresses to trace the following pattern
If you would have cared to quote properly and thus read the
previous message you'd have seen that ARIN doesn't want to
allow an address market.
ARIN does not want an address market? So what? I'd like someone to give me a
free Porche. Does not mean its going to happen.
Since they are the ones
administering 1.5 billion of the 2.5 billion addresses given
out, including the legacy class A space, not much is going to
happen without their cooperation.
Define 'administering'. Does ARIN have the effective legal or technical
capability to revoke an address block allocation within a relevant timescale?
Does ARIN have the capability to police the market and detect attempts to sell
space? Methinks not.
Phase 2: Confusion
The immeditate reaction to exhaustion of the address
space will be
recriminations countered by 'I told you so'. Parties with excess
IPv4 capacity will investigate options for sale.
It will be interesting to see what ARIN does if (for
instance) HP tries to sell 30 million addresses. I don't
think ARIN can let that happen and I don't think that HP has
a good case in court if ARIN subsequently takes the
addresses. (If they were going to sell them obviously they
didn't need them.)
HP forms a series of holding companies, vests the IP space with the holding
companies, sells the holding companies.
HP was allocated much of their space before there was an ARIN.
The only effect that threats from ARIN would have in this situation is to make
the situation worse. HP uses the address space internally. Transition to a
different address space where they are behind a NAT has real costs for them.
They are only going to make the transition if they can recover those costs.
Preventing the resale of address space might well entail an anti-trust
violation. ARIN is effectively preventing HP from competing with ARIN in the
sale of IP address blocks. Each of their class A addresses would cost several
million dollars from ARIN.
What are the precedents here with phone number and address
renumbering?
Phase 3: Speculation
You forget that the only people who'll have trouble are those
that need NEW address space. That's a relatively small
percentage of the internet community at any given time. And
90% of them can be served from address space that is returned
every year. (This can be 10+ million addresses per year.)
You forget that the whale is not really a fish, it's an insect and it lives on
bananas.
Do not use the phrase 'you appear to forget' to introduce dubious claims of
fact. It suggests that people disagree with you out of ignorance rather than
not accepting the claim you make. In this case the claim you make is at best
irrelevant.
If this were so there would not be a significant net consumption of address
space. This is clearly not the case or there would be no issue and no need for
IPv6 at all.
_______________________________________________
Ietf mailing list
Ietf(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org
https://www1.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf