Michel Py wrote:
Nothing is going to happen for months.
Iljitsch van Beijnum wrote:
Not so sure. The big ISPs that work in blocks of a million or
so addresses will be the first ones to see their requests turned
down because addresses are out of stock. Presumably, they'll need
those addresses to connect new customers. If you happen to request
a new connection around that time you'll see an effect.
Then they can begin to reclaim the waste in their own backyard.
I know first hand scores of customers who:
- Have been allocated a block of addresses and NAT out of the /30 of the
T1 link. The blocks can be reclaimed easily.
- Have been allocated a /28 without asking for it and all they use is a
single IP.
During the good old ipv6mh days, we could have hoped that IPv6 would be
deployed in time; this is no longer the case.
Think about the following: even if in 3 years 50% of hosts were
IPv6-only capable, it would not diminish the need for IPv4. All the
double-NAT tricks, unused address reclaim, config cleanup etc are going
to happen now no matter what. I'm not saying it's going to be easy or
cheap, but as long as there is a need for v4 it will happen.
The unanswered question is: are all these tricks going to be enough to
keep operating IPv4. Nobody knows, but almost everyone who already has a
v4 address can wait. I am sad so read Y2K-like FUD and counters.
The name of the game is: wait, see how much it hurts, and do something
about it when the pain becomes unbearable. Most people will try vicodin
before opting for the surgery, especially when dealing with a disease
that has not killed anyone yet. You can't change that.
Michel.
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