At 08:53 PM 4/28/2013, Margaret Wasserman wrote:
The question that people are asking is why the diversity of the IETF
leadership doesn't reflect the diversity of _the IETF_.
Let's consider for a moment that this may not actually be the correct question.
Instead, consider "Why the diversity of the IETF leadership doesn't reflect
the diversity of the set of the IETF WG chairs"? I believe this is a more
representative candidate population for the IAB and IESG.
By my count (using the WG chairs picture page), there are 202 current working
group chairs. Of these 15 are female - or 7.4% of the population [It would be
more reliable to do this for any WG chair in the last 5-10 years, but the above
was readily available and I think provides at least the basis for discussion.
Anticipating the argument, I would assume for the sake of discussion a fairly
similar percentage of ex-working group chairs per gender unless there is
evidence to the contrary]
There are 14 (current area directors plus the chair) members of the IESG, of
which none are currently female.
There are 12 current IAB members of which 1 member is female.
Assuming perfect distribution, that would suggest that 14 * (15/202) or 1.03
IESG members should be female.
Assuming perfect distribution, that would suggest that 12 * (15/202) or .89 IAB
members should be female.
Assuming perfect distribution, that would suggest that 26 * (15/202) or 1.93
IAB + IESG members should be female.
And pretending for a moment that picks for the IAB and IESG are completely
random from the candidate set of Working group chairs, the binomial
distribution for 7.4% for 27 positions is:
0 - 12.5%, 1 - 27.0%, 2 - 28.1%, 3 or more - 32.5%. (e.g. about 40% of the
time, the IAB and IESG combined will have 0 or 1 female members).
for 7.4% for 15 positions (IESG) is:
0 - 31.4%, 1 - 37.8%, 2 - 21.2%, 3 or more - 9.5%
for 7.4% for 12 positions (IAB) is:
0 - 39.6%, 1 - 38.1%, 2 - 16.8%, 3 or more - 5.4%
But the actual one you should consider is 7.4% for 14 positions (annual
replacement):
0 - 34%, 1 - 38.1%, 2 - 19.9%, 3 or more - 8%.
This last one says that for any given nomcom selection, assuming strict random
selection, 72% of the time 0 or 1 females will be selected across both the IAB
and IESG. You should use this one as the actual compositions of the IAB/IESG
are the sum of all the nomcom actions that have happened before.
There are statistical tests to determine whether there is a statistically
significant difference in populations, but my admittedly ancient memories of
statistics suggest that the population size of the IAB/IESG is too small for a
statistically valid comparison with either the WG chair population or the IETF
population.
Of course, the nomcom doesn't select and the confirming bodies do not confirm
based on a roll of the dice.
But looking at this analysis, it's unclear - for this one axis of gender - that
the question "why the diversity of the IETF leadership does not reflect the
diversity of the set of IETF WG chairs" has a more correct answer than "the
luck of the draw".
My base premise may be incorrect: That you need to have been a WG chair prior
to service as an IAB or IESG member. I hope it isn't as I think this level of
expertise is useful for success in these bodies.
Assuming it is correct, then the next question is whether or not there is a
significant difference in percentage of female attendees vs percentage of
female working group chairs and is there a root cause for that difference that
the IETF can address in a useful manner.
Mike