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RE: AOL Spam down 27%

2004-03-24 16:53:46
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Bradley,

It is unlikely that SPF has had much of a dent in the overall spam problem,
yet.  The SPF registry is under 10,000 domains to date and even if we are
conservative and triple that to 30,000 (assuming that not all adopters have
registered all of their domains), that is less than .1% of the total
worldwide domains in use.(1)  Add that to the fact that only one of the top
20 ISP's by mail volume has a published SPF record (aol.com) and those 19
domains and their subscribers send over 25% of the email on the Internet(2).

On top of that, AOL does not check inbound email against SPF records, so SPF
could not be contributing to the reduction in spam at AOL....

Marc


(1)- According to State of the Domain report on March 31, 2003 (yes, 3),
total number of registrations in only the .com, .net, .org, .biz, .info,
.name and .us registries was over 31 million.  That does not include any
other TLD's.
(2)- Analysis of information at www.senderbase.org
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com
[mailto:owner-spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com]On Behalf Of Bradley 
Cloete
Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 2004 9:45 AM
To: spf-discuss(_at_)v2(_dot_)listbox(_dot_)com
Subject: [spf-discuss] AOL Spam down 27%


Hi There,

Just saw this news article on a SANS NewsBites email...

http://www.forbes.com/technology/newswire/2004/03/19/rtr1305508.html

They saying they are seeing a 27% decline in spam entering there network

since the 20th of February.

They attributing it to the spam law that came into effect on the 1st of 
January and that over time there tweaking of spam filters has improved 
somewhat.
Now what I want to know is are those just numbers? And are the spammers 
just sending less now and could send more in April and then less again
in 
June, just some sort of up and downcycle like the stock market?

Or is it possible that the fact that the takeup of spf has something to 
do with it?

Especially since AOL posted there records in early Jan?

Or maybe even a portion of it?

Cant check when the uptake really took off... 
http://spftools.infinitepenguins.net/earlyadopters.php appears to be
broken :-(


Anyone got similar stats?

Wishful thinking?

Comments?

Cheers
Bradley

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