It's mostly dependent on how IPv6 addresses for mailservers (legitimate and
otherwise) will be allocated, and how much IPv6 will be used for inter-domain
email delivery. Do we have any data, or researched speculation, about that
to work from?
Well, I'm at a meeting where I can ask around.
I did a little greppage this morning and found that in the year that
I've had incoming v6 mail, I've gotten connections from a total of
2300 addresses. The vast majority of mail is from a handful of known
senders such as the IETF, and NANOG.
The real answer is that nobody knows what the IP address patterns will
be, but I think we can come up with some plausible scenarios. The
number of legitimate mail servers doesn't seem to be growing very
fast, so I expect the real mail will continue to come from a
relatively small set of IPs. Bot spam might just use whatever address
the host already has or might hop around. At breakfast this morning,
someone pointed out that Windows uses IPv6 anonymous addresses, and
they'd seen their users hop around somewhat.
http://www.microsoft.com/resources/documentation/windows/xp/all/proddocs/en-us/sag_ip_v6_imp_addr7.mspx?mfr=true
R's,
John
Here's the IPs that have connected more than 1000 times in the past
year:
34084 2001:1890:123a::1:1e
12971 2001:1838::cc5d:d48a
12113 2001:4f8:fff6::35
7611 2001:1890:1112:1::1e
5810 2001:1890:126c::1:1e
4810 2a02:2658:1011:1::2:2013
3747 2001:500:13::107
3298 2604:8d00:0:1::3
3259 2604:8d00:0:1::4
2309 2001:1890:123a::1:2f
2239 2604:8d00:0:1::9
2074 2001:48a8:6880:68::116:162
1635 2620:0:2d0:1::100
1281 2001:1868:4:1::25
1251 2a01:4f8:120:9382::145
1058 2001:1838:2001:8::4
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