I apologize in advance for feeding this thread, but the conversation
seems to be diverging from what I thought we had actually been
previously...
IIRC, we've semi-recently been off to the land of "PCs in homes and
cell phones". I can say I was honestly dismayed that cable providers
in the United States went to IPv4 instead of IPv6, but they did. I can
say I was honestly dismayed to learn (in the past year) that the
Push-to-talk Over Cellular (PoC) 1.0 specifications (*) changed the
3GPP IMS specifications (that required IPv6) to use IPv4 instead. But
that's what's been happening lately.
I'm not nearly as interested in forecasting the future as some of you
guys, but it seems like we do have to recognize that deployment of
IPv6 in either residential access or cell phones would reverse some
pretty recent trends. Trends do reverse, but I haven't seen a
deceleration point yet, much less a "tipping point" in these networks.
Sorry!
Spencer
(*) Available from a variety of places, including
http://www.ericsson.com/mobilityworld/sub/open/technologies/ims_poc/docs/poc_relase_1_0_spec
From: "Peter Ford" <peterf(_at_)exchange(_dot_)microsoft(_dot_)com>
Sent: Thursday, November 18, 2004 1:12 PM
I think there are at least two possible scenarios:
1) a bunch of kids in college write cool software and document how
they
do it, and band together with other interested parties to form a
consortium of people who build stuff that uses IPv4 as a bearer and
run
their own protocols on top of it (e.g. IPNNG ). Over time, people
recognize there may be economic gain in deploying IPNNG networks.
2) Some of the incumbents think about (1) and do the same. They do
it
with the two largest constituencies of data networking in the next 5
years (PCs in homes and cellphones). They may have actually started
the development of same several/many years ago. They might actually
think about using IPv6 in place of IPNNG because they are lazier than
bright college kids with time on their hands :-).
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