Patrik,
Of course, the exact depletion date experienced by an ISP will vary
very widely. 2015 is the date *most frequently* cited by the ISPs
reported on in draft-ietf-v6ops-isp-scenarios.
Regards
Brian Carpenter
On 2010-05-28 17:04, Patrik Fältström wrote:
I also think 2015 is very optimistic for some players. Specifically cellphone
providers that provide data access over for example 3G or 4G. The growth is
so fast that the block allocations from the RIRs are hard to compute.
I helped one at the last RIPE meeting in Prague, and then will now get a /13
that will help them through calendar year 2010. They will definitely not be
able to get today the addresses they need until 2015. And they definitely do
not have it.
And that is in Sweden, only 9 million people.
Patrik
On 27 maj 2010, at 22.02, <Jason(_dot_)Weil(_at_)cox(_dot_)com> wrote:
2015 seems awfully optimistic. I wouldn't want to be the poor soul
responsible for their ISP network who built a transition plan based on a
2015 depletion and then realized I was wrong by a few years.
Jason
-----Original Message-----
From: ietf-bounces(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org
[mailto:ietf-bounces(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org] On Behalf Of Brian E Carpenter
Sent: Thursday, May 27, 2010 12:14 PM
To: Ole Jacobsen
Cc: Noel Chiappa; ietf(_at_)ietf(_dot_)org
Subject: Re: IPv4 depletion makes CNN
On 2010-05-28 02:44, Ole Jacobsen wrote:
I guess my point was more that this article actually quotes a *real*
expert rather than someone we've never heard of --- a more common
practice for the press. Whether or not you agree with Daniel, he does
at least have extensive experience in these matters.
The major problem with the story is that it confounds IANA runout
(objectively predicted for 2011) with when ISPs run out of IPv4 space
(which is not so easy to predict, but 2015 is a popular estimate). The
rest is pretty good for a story in the non-technical media, IMHO.
You can find Daniel's recent talk at http://www.ipv6.ie/summit2010/.
Brian
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