Re: IPv4 depletion makes CNN

The world will continue to rotate just fine, without me prognosticating 
about the universal deployment of IPv6, but I did want to agree with Jari on 
one point:
> But I would argue this does not really matter so much. I think we have 
> already run out of the addresses, with consequent implications to 
> applications, end-to-end nature of the Internet, and business planning. 
> Just as an example, one mobile operator who participates in the IETF IPv6 
> and NAT work has half a billion subscribers. Think their planning revolves 
> around asking the RIRs for an address to each customer, as they are 
> rapidly transitioning from circuit switched voice to voip and 
> browser/email/google/facebook-on-everyone's-device model? Arguing about 
> exact dates or the level of catastrophe seems like rearranging the deck 
> chairs on Titanic. Things will be bad. We should focus on changing the 
> direction and making things better.
I agree with Jari - doesn't matter. I suspect that there is enough variation 
in IP address inventories, subscriber growth, and a variety of other 
factors, that trying to figure out when "we" will "run out" of IPv4 prefixes 
isn't helpful - the range of values for "we" and "run out" add too much 
variation to the discussion for it to converge.
The good news is that (much like the Titanic), we don't all run into an 
iceberg and sink at the same time, so we'll probably learn a lot from every 
sinking, and every sinking will probably motivate at least some people who 
are still afloat.
The bad news is that we all need to keep an eye out for icebergs, and 90 
percent of icebergs are underwater :D
Thanks,

Spencer 

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