Re: Last Call: RFC 6346 successful: moving to Proposed Standard

On Dec 3, 2014, at 9:15 AM, Dave Crocker <dhc(_at_)dcrocker(_dot_)net> wrote:

> So, after 25 years of effort, we've achieved 5% penetration.  Wow.
I don’t think that’s fair. 

Yes, the protocol was designed 20 years ago (draft-ietf-ipngwg-ipv6-spec and 
RFC 1883 are dated in 1995), and if we were doing it today we would separate 
location from identity (for multihoming reasons and in order to not need mptcp) 
and perhaps enable the use of very short IIDs (to not need 6lowpan). From that 
perspective, we are where we are. 

But serious allocation/deployment didn’t start until 2007 
(http://www.oecd.org/internet/ieconomy/44953210.pdf figure 2), Microsoft (the 
largest end system vendor) didn’t have a credible IPv6 offering until Windows 7 
at the earliest (2010), and non-trivial traffic levels didn’t happen until 
perhaps 2012 (14 years after 1995). By comparison, what we today call IPv4 was 
well underway in 1978 (look at the header in section 3.1 of IEN 28), RFC 760 
was deployed in Korea in 1982, the Internet as a whole turned up IPv4 in 
January 1983, in June 1988 had 173 routes in the route table, and didn’t see 
heady growth until the mid-1990’s (about 15 years after IEN 28). If you’re 
starting from the first publication of a protocol specification, I’d say we’re 
about on track. 20 years after 1978 is roughly when IPv4 took over from IPX, 
DecNET, and the rest, give or take a few years.

> And that's for a single, special service provider. 
Again, let’s be accurate. That’s “as measured by a single, special services 
provider”. They’re not the only provider measuring it, just one that is 
particularly noisy about it. Akamai says that 2Q14 was the first quarter in 
their history in which the number of IPv4 addresses accessing their service 
decreased, and that they are seeing significant IPv6 usage, as do Yahoo and 
others. 

And in all of these cases, they are not measurements of “folks having IPv6 
addresses and trying to use them”, they are measurements of “folks successfully 
using IPv6 end to end, through one or more ISPs, and engaging in communications 
with” whoever is reporting the measurement.

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