> And it's been going up by a factor of at least 2, every year, for
about as long as I've had the domain. This is the future of email for
everyone.
I don't see how that follows, but I can't prove that you're not right.
Take a random domain with a random number of addresses. Eventually
they start getting spam. Two things happen. First, no matter what
your churn, the addresses that got spam will continue to get
more--even if they stop existing. Furthermore, over time typos,
screwed up alphabet attacks and other factors will cause more and
more non-existent addresses to get spam. It always grows. It never
shrinks.
It certainly seems that way, but all we actually know is that
it *has* always *grown*, it *has* never *shrunk*.
This is begging the question rather. Are addresses ever removed from
spammers lists? Will they ever be? Is there an economic argument for the
list producers to "improve the quality" of their lists? Will there ever
be? What are the effect on list dynamics of current and future anti-spam
deployments? legislation?
I guess this would come under "understanding the problem".
Although somewhere.com is behind striker on the curve (only 10
million bounces last year), I've also been seeing the factor of two
progression for the five or six years I've been tracking it.
These are exactly the sort of numbers that someone should be collecting
(and aggregating). I'm not denying the truth of anyone's observations. It's
just that the predictions are also based on some assumptions about spammer
behaviour - which I don't know much about.
"I can't prove you're not right" = "not falsifiable right now" (time will
tell).
Regards,
JK
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