How long have folks been predicting ~5yr windows?
forever.
Not to diminish your table or anything, but markets don't work in binary,
and the problem has been with access more than anything else.
i am directly aware of latent address space needs that are 50X larger than
all of ipv4. geoff huston's note hit this on the head. "even at /29..."
where are these endpoints now? some are circling the field waiting for a
chance to land. some are using NAT. address space lifetime projections
don't see the whole game. ipv4 is in end-of-life, and while there's some
chance of universal NAT (where ~every endpoint thinks it's in 10.0.0.0/8
and the global routing table is just used by each NAT to talk to the others)
it appears much more likely to me that ipv6, warts and all, will be used.
there is absolutely no chance that we'll all live out our lifetimes with
ipv4 as we've always known it. and with the rocket boosters having been
applied to the ipv6 pig, it seems impossible to me that ipv6 will be bypassed
and something else will be created to replace ipv4 and be universally
deployed the way ipv4 has been.
so we can argue as to whether it's 5 years or 3 years or 10 years, and we
can argue about whether ipv6 is the best possible replacement for ipv4, and
we can argue about whether ipv6's warts can be fixed or whether we'll have
to live with them or throw it away and start over. but ipv4 is in what the
product managers call "end of life", and i hope we're not arguing about that.
--
Paul Vixie
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