On Sep 20, 2009, at 12:41 PM, Ole Jacobsen wrote:
Please try to keep in mind that (various organizations in) China has
been wanting to host an IETF meeting since 1997. One organization has
finally been given government approval to do so. This is a Big Deal
for them. Do you really think the Chinese government is looking for
an excuse to make an example of a bunch of geeks meeting in a hotel
and embarrass the local host in the process? I don't think so.
No, the PRC government at the top level is not trying to make an
example of the IETF. They're probably trying very hard to get the IETF
to engage with them.
But there a re a lot of people in the world who will be looking for
ways to make the PRC government over-react against the IETF, resulting
in an international incident that is embarrassing or otherwise
damaging to the PRC. IETF is a much more visible target than other
SDOs that might meet in China (including 3GPP2 and OMA that I have had
experience with). Further, it might be easier to trigger a
governmental reaction against IETF than those other bodies due to the
politically sensitive nature of some of our work. After all, we're the
people who made things happen so that Taiwan would have its own
country code in the DNS.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country_code_top-level_domain
And there are "politcal immune cells" that operate at a level below
that of the top-level government people that made the decision to
allow the IETF. It's hard to say what sort of actions might cause them
to activate against us or our people.
Another way to ask this question: Are our members who are Falun Gong
practitioners going to be persecuted for their beliefs while attending
IETF? Are our members who are active in Tibetan or Taiwanese
independence movements going to be quietly picked up off the street
outside our venue? Are our members who run large-scale porn web sites
going to be hassled? Will the IETF be held financially liable for
their legal defense? If so, would it not behoove said movements to
orchestrate a few arrests in order to gain international attention and
force the IETF to financial and politically engage on behalf of the
movements?
This seems like a golden opportunity for publicity, and I'd bet every
dissident with half a clue is currently thinking very hard about how
to maximize the opportunity. If they can make it happen by leaking
something into the ear of a suspected snitch, they will. If they can
make it happen by setting up a WG conversation around a risky topic,
they will. If they can make it happen by having someone pretending to
be a senior party member threaten the hotel manager, causing the hotel
manager to close a working group meeting, they will. If they can make
it happen by triggering the political immune system (which they
understand far better than we do) in any way, they will.
Do we have a large political bullseye painted on our foreheads? Yes,
we do. Should we let that stop us from meeting in China? That's the
open question. There are risks, we need to understand those risks, and
then we can decide whether or not we want to go down that path.
We should perhaps note that at least one SIP interoperability event
(SIPit 21) was held in China. The hospitality was reported as
excellent, no real political problems were reported, and the event
was generally considered quite successful. I seem to recall that they
did have an issue with network connectivity. However, this is a very
small group, and much less attractive as a political target than a
meeting of the full IETF would be.
--
Dean Willis
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