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On Thursday 02 September 2004 03:50 pm, John Keown wrote:
70,000 out of millions is not a de facto standard.
Alright, let me share my perspective on this with y'all.
(1) There are human languages spoken by fewer than a thousand people.
Languages are a standard. In fact, it can be argued that if you only have 2
people implementing it, it can be a standard. So technically, SPF is a
standard whether or note everybody is using it.
But I know what you meant: SPF will never be adopted as THE standard.
(2) How many people can possible adopt SPF? Every single domain name owner.
Well, active domain name owner. We can't force parked domains or domains
that just are never going to be used to publish SPF. Can we reasonably
expect domains with an MX record to publish? Does anybody accept email from
domains without an MX record?
That should cut it down to a million. So 70,000 is what, 7% of a million?
I'm sorry, but a 7% share of a marketplace is not something to laugh at. We
are adding about 1,000 a day, so every *10 days* we get another percent.
That means at this rate, we will dominate everything in 930 days, or less
than 3 years.
(3) But what is the number of *actual* publishers? Something greater than
70,000. Judging based on the work done on the two european domains, they
discovered roughly a 1,000 times as many publishers as registered. So that
12,000 registered in the .com domain really represents, roughly, 1.2
million actual publishers.
I admit these numbers are definitely wrong. Let's estimate that only 10% of
publishers registered. Let's discount the work done on actually counting in
the .lu and .ch TLDs. So we have:
74625-26594-19456 = 28,576 domains registered
That represents only 10% of the actual registered domains, so we have
285,760 actually registered domains. Add back in the .ch and .lu domains
and we have 331,800 actual publishing domains. That's a 33% market share.
1/3 is not bad, especially when you don't have competitors.
So, numerically speaking, we have already won.
- --
Jonathan M. Gardner
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